Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/20-7/23/2009. All adults. MoE 2% (7/13-7/16/2009 results in parentheses):
|PRESIDENT OBAMA||61 (62)||36 (35)||-2|
|PELOSI:||33 (34)||57 (56)||-2|
|REID:||31 (32)||57 (56)||-2|
|McCONNELL:||19 (21)||64 (62)||-4|
|BOEHNER:||14 (15)||64 (62)||-3|
|CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:||40 (42)||52 (51)||-3|
|CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:||11 (12)||73 (72)||-2|
|DEMOCRATIC PARTY:||46 (48)||47 (46)||-3|
|REPUBLICAN PARTY:||20 (21)||71 (73)||+1|
President Obama’s numbers take a slight dip this week, but he is extremely good company. Without exception, everyone sees a marginal drop in their favorabilities this week. The net fav/unfav statistic for the Republican Party creeps upward, but that is only because a small portion of their unfavorability shifted to undecided, giving them a net boost of a single point from last week. Republicans might want to delay the champagne, however, as the voters continue to sour on Congressional Republicans, as they edge ever closer to single digits. Furthermore, the GOP Congressional Leadership had the worst week of all, as Senate Leader Mitch McConnell joins House Leader John Boehner with favorability in the teens.
President Obama’s numbers, looking longitudinally, have continued an incremental, but steady, downward trend after the initial euphoric numbers that accompanied his inauguration. Looking at the trendline graphs, however, a few conclusions can be drawn.
For one thing, this was clearly not the result of some geographic or regional discontent. Breaking down President Obama’s favorability by region, we see nearly parallel lines across the four regions (with the South, predictably, the region that has soured on Obama the most).
Looking by party identification, however, yields some clues. Obama’s approval among Democrats and Independents have dipped far less precipitously than his ratings among Republicans:
This trendline graph mirrors similar data discussed earlier this week by Tom Jensen at PPP. Jensen found that by breaking down Obama’s approval (a caveat: they measure job approval rather than favorability) by ideology and party identification, their polling showed the biggest drop in Obama’s numbers among moderate Republicans. No other group was close to the 19-point drop in approval among that subset of the electorate.
In other data from this week’s poll, we see that the right track/wrong track metric continues to slide downward after a steep climb at the beginning of the year, wrong track now leads right track by an eleven-point margin (52-41).
On the Congressional Ballot test for 2010, Democrats shed a couple of points in the past week, mostly among Independents and Democrats. They still maintain a double-digit lead. In a sign of just how fluid the electorate is at this point, fully 50% of Independents are undecided on their party preference for Congress in the Midterm elections.
Would you like to see more Republicans or Democrats elected to Congress in 2010? (last week in parentheses)
Democrats 40 (42)
Republicans 29 (28)
Not Sure 31 (30)