Monkey Cage: Mythical swing voter update

We received a few reactions to yesterday’s post on the mythical swing voter:

1.  In comments, Yphtach Lelkes points to this 2004 paper by Robert Erikson, Costas Panagopoulos and Christopher Wlezien on problems with likely-voter screens and the way in which such screens can exaggerate opinion swings during a campaign.  The argument of Erikson et al. is not the same as ours — in particular, the “mythical swings” discussed in our paper occur even in the absence of likely-voter screening — but we agree that the two papers are related.

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