The Fix: The Washington Post’s election model gives Republicans a 95% chance of winning the Senate. Um, what?

The Washington Post’s Election Lab — our statistical model designed to predict outcomes of the various races on the ballot this fall — is currently showing Republicans with a 95 percent chance of winning the Senate. While most political handicappers suggest Republicans have an edge in the battle for the Senate majority, few would say it is as heavily tilted toward the GOP as Election Lab. And, even other statistical models — kept by FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times — project far more caution about the likely outcome in 25 days time. I reached out to John Sides, Ben Highton and Eric McGhee, who put together the model behind Election Lab,  for some answers.  Our conversation, edited only for grammar, is below.

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