Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Third GOP debate in the books

comparison of previous surge candidates, live vs internet polls

From Steve Koczela

Steve Koczela suggests Donald Trump’s poll numbers might be infliated:

DONALD TRUMP’S poll numbers are slipping in Iowa, and a new national poll is the first in a while to show him trailing. But a closer look at the polling suggests that the Trump wave may have been overstated from the beginning. His sizeable lead has been based largely on the influence of Internet polls. Trump’s summer surge looks far less impressive in telephone polls, and polls of likely voters show his lead was always smaller and is now gone entirely.
Looking across all pollsters and modes of pollsters, Donald Trump leads the field by 10 points, according to the Huffington Post, which averages poll results.  Using only online polls, his lead is even bigger. But narrow the field to just telephone polls, and Trump’s lead over Ben Carson drops to 3 points. Drill down further to

surveys that talked only to likely voters in the Republican primary, and Carson actually overtakes Trump.

Why? Among other reasons, online polls use RV or all adults, and have people who in the end might not vote.
Does that affect Bernie and Hillary? Maybe not quite as much, and least for Bernie.


More politics and policy below the fold.

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