• KY-Gov: SurveyUSA returns for one last look at the Nov. 3 general, and they find that Democrat Jack Conway holds a 45-40 lead over Republican Matt Bevin; left-leaning independent Drew Curtis takes 6. Democrats have been dramatically outspending the GOP here, and it seems to be having some effect. While Conway’s 36-32 favorable rating isn’t spectacular, it’s better than Bevin’s underwater 32-38 score.
One month ago, SurveyUSA gave Conway a similar 42-37 edge. Only a few other polls have been released here, and they’ve all found Conway ahead from anywhere between 2 and 5 points: Even Bevin’s own poll showed the Democrat ahead 44-41. The GOP isn’t giving up here though. The RGA is out with three separate ads as part of their overall $2.5 million investment for the final two weeks of the race. Shockingly, all three
tie Conway to Obama. Bevin also has a new commercial that does the same thing, and even stars an actor playing Conway.
In the Bevin ad, “Conway” repeatedly tells Siri he supports various Obama policies, and Siri tells him he’s a liberal. Bevin deserves some points for trying to find a creative way to convey the usual “red state Democrat is an Obama clone!” messaging. But he loses them by beating the joke into the ground and having his Conway talk in a way no one ever talks outside of whatever universe campaign commercials are set in. When was the last time you thought to ask Siri “I supported Obama’s job killing cap and trade bill, but Kentucky doesn’t like it”? (I asked Siri that very question, and all she did was bring up some Bing searches.)
Democrats have reason to feel good about Tuesday, but a Bevin win is far from out of the question. We’ve seen plenty of polling errors over the last few years, and it wouldn’t take much to turn a small Conway lead into a dead heat. We’re also relying on a very small number of polls, so only a few groups are defining this contest. The RGA’s multi-million dollar return to Kentucky after a three-week absence may also be a sign that Team Red has numbers showing this contest still very winnable for Bevin. Still, you’d always rather be the side hoping all the polls are right than the side hoping all the polls are wrong.