I’ve long argued that Bernie Sanders’ national ceiling is 30 percent, and at 28.7 percent in the polling composite, he’s close to either proving me right or wrong. Unfortunately for him, Hillary Clinton has also seen a big rise in her numbers as well, from 44.3 percent in the composite in late September, to 54.5 percent just a month later.
All told, in the past month, Clinton is up 10 and Sanders is up about 3 1/2. Interestingly, Clinton’s gains don’t seem to have come at the expense of Sanders. Eyeballing the list of polling, it really looks like half of Biden’s crowd went to Clinton, the other half slotted in at “undecided.” But that’s about as rough an observation as anyone can muster. We really don’t know who went from what column to what column. We can only guess.
The Benghazi Inquisition of Hillary
was October 22. We have four polls conducted since.
10/27-29: Clinton 50, Sanders 30
10/13-15: Clinton 45, Sanders 31
10/27-29: Clinton 53, Sanders 33
10/17-21: Clinton 45, Sanders 29
10/27-29: Clinton 61, Sanders 29
10/8-12: Clinton 48, Sanders 23
… You know, fuck Gravis. They show much of the same as above, but I can’t even dignify them by printing their numbers. They suck.
Iowa doesn’t have much in the way of post-Inquisition polling. There’s a Monmouth poll that ran 10/22-25 showing Hillary with a massive 65-24 lead, but no good trendlines to compare against. Their last Iowa poll was in June, and this one is kinda hard to believe without further confirmation. We have nothing out of New Hampshire.
Looking at the general election picture, Clinton has a 48-42 lead against Donald Trump in the polling aggregate (46-44 a month ago), 47-42 lead over Marco Rubio (47-43 a month ago), and 46-45 over Carson, though he’s due for a flameout in the next three weeks. It may have already started—he was beating Clinton 48-45 a month ago.