• KY-Gov: Just days ahead of Kentucky’s gubernatorial election, GOP pollster Vox Populi released the first survey since June—and just the second one all year—that does not show Republican Matt Bevin losing to Democrat Jack Conway. Vox’s poll has the two leading candidates tied at 44 apiece, with independent Drew Curtis at 6.
Election junkies know that there’s been precious little polling out of the Bluegrass State, but Conway’s led in the last six surveys in a row—including in Bevin’s own internal. The only time anyone’s actually found Bevin ahead came over four months ago, when PPP, interestingly, put him up 40-38. That was a long time ago, though, and until now, no one had put up any numbers to contradict this string of a half-dozen polls.
But the question is, could Vox be right? It’s certainly possible. Last year, as
brand-new firm, Vox performed well, predicting much more success for Republicans than most other outfits. However, was this because they accurately understood the nature of 2014’s GOP wave? Or did they naturally lean in the direction of their partisan inclinations and just get lucky? We’ll find out on Tuesday.