Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: New poll shows Carmona up two points over Flake

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AZ-Sen: Holy Toledo, Batman! Or should I say Holy Tucson? PPP’s new Arizona poll shows Democrat Rich Carmona leading GOP Rep. Jeff Flake 45-43, up from 44-43 Flake a few weeks ago, in a race that’s now pointing very strongly toward “tossup.” One difficulty in analyzing this contest, though, is that almost all public polling has been conducted by PPP or by Republican pollsters like Rasmussen (blech), so it’d be nice if some other reputable firms also provided some numbers. But if PPP’s right, then Carmona’s doing an amazing job in separating himself from the top of the ticket, seeing as Obama’s losing 53-44 and has a rough 40-57 approval rating. (Remarkably, as Tom Jensen points out, Arizona voters have a favorable view of Romney, 54-42.) The other fact, of course, is that the DSCC is now playing here, which means their internals must look pretty promising as well.

To top things off, Carmona just announced raising an impressive $2.2 million in the third quarter, double his haul from the prior quarter. Flake hasn’t announced his totals yet.


Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: National Democrats make move into Arizona Senate race

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AZ-Sen: Rich Carmona fans, your wait is over: Multiple media outlets are reporting that the DSCC is going up with their first ad buy on his behalf starting this week, for a total of $526K. Carmona, of course, is the Bush-era surgeon general who was recruited by Democrats in an attempt to pick up this GOP-held seat left open by the retiring Jon Kyl. There hasn’t been a ton of polling here, but of late, it’s tended to show Carmona in a surprisingly close race with Republican Rep. Jeff Flake. And based on this move, you have to figure the DSCC’s own internals look at least as good. Of course, this is only a single week’s worth of ads (and we haven’t seen the spot yet), but a pickup here for Team Blue would be amazing.


Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Patrick Murphy leads in two polls—and raises a million bucks

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FL-18: Over the weekend, we (the Daily Kos Elections staff) were debating amongst ourselves whether Allen West’s new TV spot attacking Patrick Murphy over a teenage arrest for drunkenness was a desperation move or a coffin-nailer. After all, West had just released a poll showing him up 11 points on his Democratic opponent. But that internal had some issues (namely, a huge Romney lead in a district where he shouldn’t have one), and that ad isn’t typically the kind you put out if you have a double-digit lead in the polls.

Well, now we have a clearer picture of the race thanks to two new surveys, and West’s move looks a lot more like it came from weakness rather than strength. First up is a poll from the Murphy-supporting House Majority PAC, courtesy of Garin-Hart-Yang, that features Murphy legging out to a 52-43 lead over West. Obama’s beating Romney as well, 52-45, which is a notably wider edge than his three-point win in 2008, but makes sense in the context of the president’s recent surge in the state of Florida.

Perhaps more remarkable is a poll from Kimball Political Consulting, which is a Republican firm that mostly works on Massachusetts races. They also see Murphy in front, albeit by a smaller 49-45 edge, though their presidential toplines match GHY’s exactly (52-45). One odd thing about this survey, though—which includes full crosstabs, unlike HMP’s—is that young voters strongly favor both Romney and West. That seems unlikely, to say the least. But no matter what, these new sets of numbers are very good news for Murphy.

P.S. The award for How Do You Like Them Apples (3Q fundraising edition) goes to none other than… Patrick Murphy, who just announced raising an eye-popping $1.05 million in the quarter. Murphy didn’t provide cash-on-hand numbers, but this takes him to a monster $3.3 million raised for the cycle to date. Running against Allen West has its advantages!


Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Chamber’s new California ads feature Minnesota businesswoman

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Chamber of Commerce: Yikes. According to a report in The Hotline, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is launching a $3.3 million television ad assault across ten different California House districts. Reid Wilson has the details on the size of each buy at the link, and here are eight of their spots (CA-03 and CA-36 don’t appear to have been posted yet): CA-07 | CA-09 | CA-10 | CA-24 | CA-26 | CA-41 | CA-47 | CA-52.

The Chamber is also deploying their ads in Illinois, specifically in IL-10 and IL-13. But not only are all of the commercials in both states really crappily produced, they also all start out the same way, featuring a whiny businesswoman complaining she can’t expand her company because of tax and regulatory uncertainty… who just happens to be from Minnesota. They seriously couldn’t find someone from the Golden State or the Land of Lincoln?