Morning Digest: With days to go in Kentucky, another poll shows Conway leading Bevin

Kentucky Democrat Jack Conway

Kentucky Democrat Jack Conway

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KY-Gov: SurveyUSA returns for one last look at the Nov. 3 general, and they find that Democrat Jack Conway holds a 45-40 lead over Republican Matt Bevin; left-leaning independent Drew Curtis takes 6. Democrats have been dramatically outspending the GOP here, and it seems to be having some effect. While Conway’s 36-32 favorable rating isn’t spectacular, it’s better than Bevin’s underwater 32-38 score.

One month ago, SurveyUSA gave Conway a similar 42-37 edge. Only a few other polls have been released here, and they’ve all found Conway ahead from anywhere between 2 and 5 points: Even Bevin’s own poll showed the Democrat ahead 44-41. The GOP isn’t giving up here though. The RGA is out with three separate ads as part of their overall $2.5 million investment for the final two weeks of the race. Shockingly, all three

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Morning Digest: Louisiana Democrat: “David Vitter wouldn’t last a day at West Point”


Democrat John Bel Edwards ad against Republican David Vitter

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LA-Gov: Neither Republican David Vitter nor Democrat John Bel Edwards has much time to prepare for the Nov. 21 general election, and both parties are wasting no time opening up a can of whoop ass on the other side. The nasty jungle primary left Vitter with terrible favorable ratings, especially once his opponents started asking questions about his 2007 prostitution scandal. However, Louisiana is a very conservative state and President Obama has never been popular, and Vitter and his allies are aggressively working to link Edwards to Obama. This election may come down to one question: Can Louisianans hate David Vitter more than they hate Barack Obama?

Edwards’ first general election spot warns viewers that Vitter “will spend millions of dollars lying about my record, my values, and my service to our country and our state.

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Morning Digest: Another poll gives Democrats a small edge in Kentucky with one week to go

Kentucky Democrat Jack Conway

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jack Conway

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KY-Gov: If Western Kentucky University’s new poll of the Bluegrass State’s gubernatorial showdown next week is right, then the RGA’s late decision to try to rescue Matt Bevin is not going very well at all. WKU finds Democrat Jack Conway with a 45-40 lead, while left-leaning independent Drew Curtis takes 7 percent of the vote. That leaves just 8 percent undecided, Bevin would have to capture three quarters of those who haven’t made up their mind just to catch up to Conway. Given that Curtis supporters are more likely to migrate in the Democratic direction, that’s a tall order indeed.

But as we well know, undecideds in a red state almost invariably lean Republican, as just about every pollster who tested the waters in Kentucky’s Senate race learned last year to the industry’s collective chagrin. That group included WKU, whose

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Morning Digest: GOP plan to travel back in time and kill Baby David Vitter almost succeeds

Louisiana Republican Sen. David Vitter

Louisiana Republican David Vitter

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LA-Gov: Whether Team Red likes it or not, Sen. David Vitter is their gubernatorial nominee. On Saturday, Louisiana voters went to the polls for the jungle primary and unsurprisingly, Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards grabbed the first runoff spot with 40 percent of the vote. However, Vitter only beat Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, a fellow Republican, 23-19 for the other runoff spot; GOP Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne took fourth place with 15 percent. The Vitter-Angelle battle was closer than most pollsters predicted: Only Market Research Insight showed Angelle within striking distance of Vitter in October.

Louisiana is a dark red state and Edwards won’t have an easy time winning on Nov. 21, but Vitter may have just what it takes to lose it all. The senator started 2015 with good favorable ratings, and it appeared that he’d put his

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Morning Digest: Our massive House fundraising chart is here

Democratic Colorado congressional candidate Morgan Carroll

Colorado Democrat Morgan Carroll is off to a fast fundraising start

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Fundraising: Daily Kos Elections’ massive third quarter House fundraising chart is now available. We have listings for over 250 candidates ranging from longshots to top-tier battles, with plenty of hotly contested primaries thrown in as well. You won’t find a more comprehensive—and more succinct—roundup anywhere else.

There are a few candidate hauls worth noting. Colorado’s swingy 6th District played host to a very expensive contest last year, and 2016 will be no different. Democrat Morgan Carroll brought in a strong $377,000 during her inaugural quarter, and she has $308,000 on hand. However, despite his many gaffes, there’s no doubt that Republican incumbent Mike Coffman is a very good fundraiser. Coffman raised $476,000, and he has $860,000 on hand.

Democrat Lon Johnson entered the race for Michigan’s 1st District with high expectations, and he

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Morning Digest: It’s okay to do a little happy dance when you read this Sharron Angle news

Republican Senate candidate Sharron Angle gestures during a televised Nevada Senate debate with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid at the Las Vegas Public Broadcasting System studios in Las Vegas, Nevada, October 14, 2010. REUTERS/Steve Marcus (UNITED STATES - Tags: POLITICS MEDIA) - RTXTGFQ

Nevada Republican Sharron Angle

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NV-Sen: Jon Ralston reports that Sharron Angle, one of the worst GOP candidates of 2010, is considering another run for the Senate. Two legislators are circulating a letter urging her to get in, and Angle herself added a postscript admitting she is interested and telling would-be supporters, “Your financial support for this effort will make the decision much, much easier.”

Democrats would be beyond overjoyed if Angle somehow beat Rep. Joe Heck in the GOP primary, but that’s extremely unlikely. While Angle still has her supporters in the far-right, very few other Republicans have any interest in seeing her on another general election ballot after her last campaign. Indeed, as a March Daily Beast story shows, Angle has largely faded into obscurity since her loss to Sen. Harry Reid, and she’d have a very tough time raising money against the

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Morning Digest: RGA, in reversal, rushes in to save Matt Bevin with just two weeks to go

Kentucky Republican Matt Bevin

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KY-Gov: Three weeks ago, the RGA unexpectedly stopped airing ads for Republican Matt Bevin. The group never publicly gave a reason, but it seems national Republicans felt that Bevin was running a weak campaign, and they didn’t want to send any more money his way until he shaped up. Bevin’s campaign doesn’t appear to have gotten any better: He’s still allowing Democrat Jack Conway to outspend him, and he almost missed his own fundraiser. But the RGA must see some sort of opening here, since they’re returning to Kentucky with a $1.6 million ad buy.

Unsurprisingly, the RGA’s first new ad is basically the same as every ad they’ve run in a red state since… oh, 2010. The narrator describes how awful things are (“Health care costs have skyrocketed, too many jobs have been lost…” you get the

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