Democrat John Bel Edwards ad against Republican David Vitter
•LA-Gov: Neither Republican David Vitter nor Democrat John Bel Edwards has much time to prepare for the Nov. 21 general election, and both parties are wasting no time opening up a can of whoop ass on the other side. The nasty jungle primary left Vitter with terrible favorable ratings, especially once his opponents started asking questions about his 2007 prostitution scandal. However, Louisiana is a very conservative state and President Obama has never been popular, and Vitter and his allies are aggressively working to link Edwards to Obama. This election may come down to one question: Can Louisianans hate David Vitter more than they hate Barack Obama?
Leading Off: •KY-Gov: If Western Kentucky University’s new poll of the Bluegrass State’s gubernatorial showdown next week is right, then the RGA’s late decision to try to rescue Matt Bevin is not going very well at all. WKU finds Democrat Jack Conway with a 45-40 lead, while left-leaning independent Drew Curtis takes 7 percent of the vote. That leaves just 8 percent undecided, Bevin would have to capture three quarters of those who haven’t made up their mind just to catch up to Conway. Given that Curtis supporters are more likely to migrate in the Democratic direction, that’s a tall order indeed.
But as we well know, undecideds in a red state almost invariably lean Republican, as just about every pollster who tested the waters in Kentucky’s Senate race learned last year to the industry’s collective chagrin. That group included WKU, whose
Leading Off: •LA-Gov: Whether Team Red likes it or not, Sen. David Vitter is their gubernatorial nominee. On Saturday, Louisiana voters went to the polls for the jungle primary and unsurprisingly, Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards grabbed the first runoff spot with 40 percent of the vote. However, Vitter only beat Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, a fellow Republican, 23-19 for the other runoff spot; GOP Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne took fourth place with 15 percent. The Vitter-Angelle battle was closer than most pollsters predicted: Only Market Research Insight showed Angelle within striking distance of Vitter in October.
Louisiana is a dark red state and Edwards won’t have an easy time winning on Nov. 21, but Vitter may have just what it takes to lose it all. The senator started 2015 with good favorable ratings, and it appeared that he’d put his
Colorado Democrat Morgan Carroll is off to a fast fundraising start
Leading Off: •Fundraising: Daily Kos Elections’ massive third quarter House fundraising chart is now available. We have listings for over 250 candidates ranging from longshots to top-tier battles, with plenty of hotly contested primaries thrown in as well. You won’t find a more comprehensive—and more succinct—roundup anywhere else.
There are a few candidate hauls worth noting. Colorado’s swingy 6th District played host to a very expensive contest last year, and 2016 will be no different. Democrat Morgan Carroll brought in a strong $377,000 during her inaugural quarter, and she has $308,000 on hand. However, despite his many gaffes, there’s no doubt that Republican incumbent Mike Coffman is a very good fundraiser. Coffman raised $476,000, and he has $860,000 on hand.
Democrat Lon Johnson entered the race for Michigan’s 1st District with high expectations, and he
Leading Off: •NV-Sen: Jon Ralston reports that Sharron Angle, one of the worst GOP candidates of 2010, is considering another run for the Senate. Two legislators are circulating a letter urging her to get in, and Angle herself added a postscript admitting she is interested and telling would-be supporters, “Your financial support for this effort will make the decision much, much easier.”
Democrats would be beyond overjoyed if Angle somehow beat Rep. Joe Heck in the GOP primary, but that’s extremely unlikely. While Angle still has her supporters in the far-right, very few other Republicans have any interest in seeing her on another general election ballot after her last campaign. Indeed, as a March Daily Beast story shows, Angle has largely faded into obscurity since her loss to Sen. Harry Reid, and she’d have a very tough time raising money against the
Leading Off: •KY-Gov: Three weeks ago, the RGA unexpectedly stopped airing ads for Republican Matt Bevin. The group never publicly gave a reason, but it seems national Republicans felt that Bevin was running a weak campaign, and they didn’t want to send any more money his way until he shaped up. Bevin’s campaign doesn’t appear to have gotten any better: He’s still allowing Democrat Jack Conway to outspend him, and he almost missed his own fundraiser. But the RGA must see some sort of opening here, since they’re returning to Kentucky with a $1.6 million ad buy.
Unsurprisingly, the RGA’s first new ad is basically the same as every ad they’ve run in a red state since… oh, 2010. The narrator describes how awful things are (“Health care costs have skyrocketed, too many jobs have been lost…” you get the