Beltway hackery, meet Beltway hackery

Mark Halperin


Mark Halperin, hack extraordinaire:

Mitt Romney decisively loses the Tom Friedman Primary. Boston will likely say “who cares?” and “big surprise (not),” rather than asking why it happened and what the political (and potential governing) implications are.

Holy fucking shit, did Romney really lose the Tom Fucking Friedman Primary? Oh noes! And Boston doesn’t even care! Because, you know, Tom Friedman gets 1 million votes, all of them strategically allocated in swing states. So the Romney campaign better care that they’ve just lost Friedman’s 75,000 votes in North Carolina, not to mention his 125,000 votes in Ohio!

Um, it isn’t just the Romney campaign who doesn’t give a shit. The current population of the United States is 311,591,917, and I guarantee that 311,591,915 of them don’t give a shit who won the Tom Friedman Primary, particularly since the primaries that actually matter ended back in April. Someone should let Halperin know.


Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Obama continues to hold modest lead as race enters October

As expected, Monday brought a poll-a-palooza, as the accumulated total of weekend polls and Monday poll releases brought the final count of polls today to 51 polls, among the highest totals of the campaign thus far.

Taken as a whole, the Monday polls present something of a “mixed bag”, though the press has apparently settled on an “OMG, the race is tightening!” narrative.

This is one of those times when the press appears to be right, but is totally wrong, all at the same time. Poll watchers used to seeing Obama staked to a 4-6 point lead would probably be a touch surprised to see Obama now looking at a 2-4 point advantage.

However, a key component of understanding poll trends is getting a good look at who is doing the polling. And the bottom line on that: only one pollster (CNN/ORC) saw Mitt Romney move closer to President Obama by more than a single point.

More on that after the jump. But, first, on to the numbers:


NATIONAL (ABC News/Washington Post): Obama 49, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 44 (RV)

NATIONAL (American Research Group): Obama 49, Romney 46

NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama 50, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 46 (RV)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 45

NATIONAL (GWU Battleground/Politico): Obama 49, Romney 47

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 41 (LV); Obama 45, Romney 40 (RV)

NATIONAL (Merriman River Group): Obama 46, Romney 43, Others 3

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 50, Romney 47

NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 46

NATIONAL (Zogby for the Washington Times): Obama 50, Romney 41

COLORADO (We Ask America–R): Obama 49, Romney 46, Others 1

FLORIDA (Gravis–R): Obama 49, Romney 48

IOWA (Selzer for the Des Moines Register): Obama 49, Romney 45

IOWA (We Ask America–R): Obama 48, Romney 44, Others 2

MAINE (Critical Insights): Obama 52, Romney 36, Others 3

MARYLAND (Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks): Obama 57, Romney 34

MASSACHUSETTS (MassINC for WBUR): Obama 60, Romney 32

MASSACHUSETTS (Univ. of NH for the Boston Globe): Obama 57, Romney 30, Others 2

MICHIGAN (EPIC/MRA): Obama 47, Romney 37,

MICHIGAN (We Ask America–R): Obama 52, Romney 40, Others 1

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama 52, Romney 37

NEW MEXICO (We Ask America–R): Obama 51, Romney 41, Others 4

NORTH CAROLINA (American Research Group): Romney 50, Obama 46, Others 1

OHIO (Columbus Dispatch Poll): Obama 51, Romney 42, Other 3

OHIO (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 45

WASHINGTON (Rasmussen): Obama 52, Romney 41, Other 3


FL-SEN (Gravis–R): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 43, Connie Mack IV (R) 43

HI-SEN (Merriman River Group for Civil Beat): Mazie Hirono (D) 55, Linda Lingle (R) 39

ME-SEN (Critical Insights): Angus King (I) 50, Charlie Summers (R) 28, Cynthia Dill (D) 12

MA-SEN (MassINC for WBUR): Elizabeth Warren (D) 49, Sen. Scott Brown (D) 45

MA-SEN (Univ. of NH for the Boston Globe): Elizabeth Warren (D) 43, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 38

MO-SEN (Kiley and Company for the McCaskill campaign): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 50, Todd Akin (R) 41

NM-SEN (Rasmussen): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 39, Others 2

NM-SEN (We Ask America–R): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 41

OH-SEN (Columbus Dispatch): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 39

NC-GOV (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 47, Walter Dalton (D) 37, Barbara Howe (L) 5

AZ-02 (Grove Insight for the DCCC): Rep. Ron Barber (D) 54, Martha McSally (R) 40

FL-18 (Garin-Hart-Yang for the House Majority PAC–D): Patrick Murphy (D) 52, Rep. Allen West (R) 43

FL-18 (Kimball Political Consulting–R): Patrick Murphy (D) 49, Rep. Allen West (R) 45

FL-26 (McLaughlin and Associates for undisclosed GOP client): Joe Garcia (D) 43, Rep. David Rivera (R) 33, Jose Peixoto (I) 5

GA-12 (McLaughlin and Associates for the Anderson campaign): Lee Anderson (R) 44, Rep. John Barrow (D) 43

IL-10 (McLaughlin and Associates for the Dold campaign): Rep. Bob Dold (R) 44, Brad Schneider (D) 37

IL-13 (Victoria Research for the Gill campaign): David Gill (D) 40, Rodney Davis (R) 39, John Hartman (I) 8

ME-01 (Critical Insights): Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) 60, Jon Courtney (R) 29

ME-02 (Critical Insights): Rep. Mike Michaud (D) 54, Kevin Raye (R) 39

MA-06 (Univ. of New Hampshire for the Boston Globe): Richard Tisei (R) 37, Rep. John Tierney (D) 31

NJ-02 (Stockton Polling Institute): Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) 55, Cassandra Shober (D) 35

NC-08 (NRCC IVR Poll): Richard Hudson (R) 50, Rep. Larry Kissell (D) 41

RI-01 (Fleming and Associates for WPRI-TV): Rep. David Ciliclline (D) 44, Brendan Doherty (R) 38, David Vogel (I) 6

TX-23 (OnMessage for the Canseco campaign): Rep. Quico Canseco (R) 47, Pete Gallego (D) 37

WI-07 (FM3 for the Kreitlow campaign): Rep. Sean Duffy (R) 44, Pat Kreitlow (D) 41

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump…

Election Diary Rescue 10/1/12

Merton’s “Fine and Dangerous Season” Begins

Tonight’s sampling:

[Sen-Var] Intrading the Senate, Week 7 by Buckland – Diarist takes a look at the current odds on various Senate races via Intrade, part of a series. Looks like Dems pick up one more seat at current odds than Intrade’s original projectiion of 52 (plus independents) over 48 R’s.

[PA-18] Better ad for Larry Maggi – PA-18 by musicsleuth – Diarist offers a video ad for Blue Dog Larry Maggi (D) in PA-18, because there really is a difference between him and any Republican, including his opponent Tim Murphy (R).

[CA-Var] California competitive districts cheat sheet: November 2012 elections by kurykh – Diarist has charts on the Dem/Rep spread, map of competitive U.S. House districts with analysis. Also offers the same for State Senate and State Assembly.

Today’s EDR covers rescued down-ticket election diaries published between noon on September 30th till noon on October 1st.

This edition of Election Diary Rescue includes the following gems dug up by our miners, for a total of (30) diaries:

Senate: (7) posts, variety of states
House: (6) posts, (4) states and districts, plus various
State: (1)
Various: (3)
Ballot Initiatives: (2)
General: (11)

More diaries and information about this project beneath the
Orange Squiggle of Down-Ticket Power

Early voting update in Iowa and North Carolina

U.S. President Barack Obama and first lady, Michelle Obama, attend a campaign event at the Village of East Davenport in Davenport, Iowa, August 15, 2012. REUTERS/Larry Downing

Winning in Iowa, but GOP hasn’t surrendered yet.

Must current data can be found here.


Absentee ballot requests:
Dem 134,589 (60.9%)
Rep 37,544 (17.0%)
No party 48,595 (22.0%)


In 2008, registered Democrats were 50 percent of Iowa’s 481,179 early votes compared to 29 percent for registered Republicans. Day to day, the 2012 number is slowly declining as more Republicans request ballots than Democrats, so there is ample time for Republicans to catch up. One of the ways that they might do so is through a state law that allows a hundred people to petition for a special in-person early voting site, which evangelicals are taking advantage of to request Sunday early voting sites at their churches.


Absentee ballot requests:
Dem 25,013 (26.1%)
Rep 51,253 (53.4%)
No party 19,636 (20.5%)


Unfortunately for Romney, only 13 percent of all North Carolina early votes were cast by mail in 2008, while 87 percent were cast at in-person polling locations. Democrats overwhelmingly voted early in-person in 2008 and 2004, so once that option becomes available in October, the 2012 numbers will likely dramatically shift in Obama’s favor.

These numbers are extremely early, and just a tiny percentage of the expected overal voter turnout. So whether the numbers look good or bad, it’s too early to celebrate or be depressed. Fact is, the team that wants it most will win these states, particularly in neck-and-neck North Carolina.

Update: Obama campaign is claiming big success registering voters in North Carolina:

The effort, it seems, has borne fruit – to the tune of more than 250,000 new registered voters in North Carolina since April 2011, according to Obama’s team. That’s more new voters than the campaign has registered anywhere else in the country […]

Of course, registration numbers alone don’t tell the whole story in North Carolina. Democrats have long outnumbered Republicans in the state, even though voters sided with GOP presidential candidates for decades. Democratic registration has fallen by about 90,000 since the end of 2008, while unaffiliated voters have increased by more than 250,000. Republican registration is up by about 5,000 during that same timeframe.

Presumably, the 250,000 Democrats that the Obama campaign has registered are real Democrats, unlike past Dixiecrats that overstated Democratic registration numbers. If we lost racist former Democrats to the ranks of the unaffiliated or Republican, that’s not a net loss for Team Blue.

Battleground snapshot: Another bad weekend for Romney

A boy reaches out to shake hands with U.S. President Barack Obama at a campaign event at Desert Pines High School in Las Vegas, Nevada September 30, 2012. Obama in Las Vegas to prepare for the upcoming presidential debate in Denver on Wednesday. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Pres. Barack Obama, winning in Nevada.

Below are the TPM polling composites. The four-year-ago comparison is from the Real Clear Politics polling composite on Oct. 1, 2008.

The national polling is as erratic as always. The numbers have tightened, but most of that is from a batch of new pollsters adding to the mix. Fact is, Obama still has a clear and comfortable edge.

Meanwhile, that edge is solid in most of the States That Matter. Of the nine most competitive states left, Obama is above 50 in the two most important—Ohio and Florida, as well as Wisconsin. He is at 48.9 percent or higher in all but North Carolina, the sole state in which he still trails. Meanwhile, Romney hits 46 percent in just two. He can’t even hit 44 percent in must-win Ohio.